A Credit Analysis Framework for Middle Market Companies
Underwriting a middle-market credit requires going beyond headline EBITDA. Here's the framework used in practice.
1. EBITDA Quality
Start with reported EBITDA and work backwards. Common adjustments include management fees, non-recurring items, and run-rate cost savings. The key question: are the add-backs defensible and already realized?
2. Free Cash Flow Conversion
EBITDA is not cash. High capex businesses, working capital-intensive models, and interest burden all compress free cash flow. Model the cash interest coverage and free cash flow sweep capacity.
3. Leverage & Coverage Ratios
- Net Leverage: Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA — typically 4.0x–6.0x for senior secured direct lending
- Fixed Charge Coverage: (EBITDA - Capex) / (Interest + Required Amortization) — floor of 1.1x–1.2x
4. Downside Scenarios
Stress EBITDA by 15–30% and model the path to covenant breach or liquidity crisis. The question isn't just "can they repay?" but "how much cushion do we have?"
5. Exit & Recovery Analysis
What's the collateral coverage? In a downside scenario, can the lender recover par through a sale or restructuring? Asset coverage and enterprise value support matter.